By Jordan Meadows
Staff Writer
In 2024, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris could have won the Electoral College by winning the states she carried, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, plus the so-called Blue Wall battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
By 2032, that strategy would no longer work; given the shift of electoral votes to the South, even if a Democrat in 2032 were to carry the Blue Wall states and both Arizona and Nevada, the result would be only a narrow 276–262 win.
The U.S. population continues to grow at a pace not seen since 2001, driven largely by international migration. According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s most recent estimates, the national population grew by nearly 1 percent. Of the 3.3 million people added to the national population in that year, 84% were due to international migration.
This population movement is having a direct impact on the apportionment of House seats and, by extension, Electoral College votes. The number of electoral votes each state has is based on its total representation in Congress—two Senators plus the number of House Representatives. As the population shifts, states with growing populations gain representation, while those with stagnating or declining populations lose seats.
The South continues to lead the nation in population growth, adding nearly 1.8 million people from 2023 to 2024, with Texas and Florida accounting for the lion’s share of this increase. The region is expected to gain between nine and ten House seats by the next reapportionment.
The projections are not set in stone. With half a decade to go before the next census, much could change.
The new Trump administration, for example, could carry through on campaign promises to deport millions of undocumented immigrants and their families. Or, as some allies want, it could adopt an even more hardline approach that sharply reduces the number of foreign student visas and cuts off other pathways for legal immigration. Both moves would affect the population of immigrant-heavy states, red and blue alike.
North Carolina, for its part, now has a population exceeding 11 million. It is among the states that will likely gain a seat in the House after the next census. Its population growth—estimated at 1.5% in the past year alone—is among the fastest in the nation. This growth is a result of both domestic migration as many people are moving to North Carolina from states like New York and Illinois.
The overall impact of migration from liberal states to the South is complicated by the political conservatism that dominates much of the region. Many of the newcomers to states like North Carolina tend to be older, wealthier, and more conservative, thus balancing out the more liberal tendencies of younger immigrant populations.
North Carolina provides a unique example of this trend. While the state has been a solid Republican stronghold in recent elections, its fastest-growing urban centers are metros like Charlotte and Raleigh, making the state more competitive for Democrats in elections.
Meanwhile, traditional Democratic strongholds in the Northeast and Midwest, particularly the so-called “Rust Belt,” are seeing population stagnation or decline. The Blue Wall states are especially vulnerable; these key swing states saw a shift toward Republicans in the 2016 and 2020 elections, and with their populations continuing to shrink, their influence in the Electoral College is expected to diminish.
Looking ahead to the 2030 census and beyond, the South is expected to continue its demographic dominance, with states like Texas, Florida, Tennessee and the Carolina’s at the forefront. These states, along with Arizona and Georgia, are projected to add several new House seats.
The flow of Americans out of states like California, New York, and Pennsylvania in recent years could slow — or even partially reverse. Indeed, the most recent census data contains signs that may be happening to some degree. However, if population trends for the rest of the decade look more like the past year, California and New York would lose numerous seats.
The outcome could also turn on something more basic: an accurate census. In the lead up to the 2020 census, states like California and New York invested millions of dollars to educate residents about the census and the importance of participation. Other states, like Texas, invested nothing or very little. As a result, New York lost fewer seats than projected, while Texas gained fewer than expected.
An additional wildcard could be a decision by the Trump administration to try to add a controversial question to the census requesting the citizenship status of respondents, which advocates warn could depress census participation in states with large immigrant communities. Efforts last decade by the first Trump administration to add such a question were blocked by courts.