(AP NEWS) After a frenetic few months of congressional redistricting efforts, President Donald Trump’s plan to reshape voting districts for partisan advantage ahead of this year’s midterm elections stands at an important juncture.
Will Republican- and Democratic-led states ramp up their remapping of U.S. House districts as new legislative sessions get underway? Or will the mid-decade redistricting frenzy fade away following Indiana’s resounding rejection of Trump’s pressure-packaged campaign?
“We’re at a crossroads to see if the mid-decade redistricting movement gains more speed or was simply an attempt by Donald Trump to impact elections that in many states fizzled,” said Jeffrey Wice, director of the Elections, Census and Redistricting Institute at New York Law School.
Virginia and Florida are two key states to watch. Democrats who lead Virginia and Republicans who lead Florida could try to swing multiple seats in their party’s favor by an aggressive redistricting. Virginia’s legislative session begins Wednesday. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis plans to call a special session in April on congressional redistricting.
What happens next in Democratic-led Illinois and Maryland and in Kansas’ Republican-led Legislature also could affect the GOP’s ability to maintain a narrow House majority in the face of political headwinds that typically favor the party out of power in midterm elections. Key lawmakers in all three of those states remain opposed to redistricting.
A gerrymandering wave hits a wall
Trump kick-started an unusual redistricting plan in July by calling on Texas Republicans to redraw their congressional map to create more favorable districts for the party — even though there was no new census data to base it upon. That triggered a mid-decade redistricting battle the likes of which has not been common since the late 1800s.
Texas, Missouri and North Carolina all approved new Republican-friendly House districts. Ohio, which had to redistrict because of its state constitution, used the opportunity to enact a more favorable House map for Republicans.
But Ohio’s action on Oct. 31 marked a turning point. That same day, Virginia’s Democratic-led legislature took a first step toward redistricting. Then in November, California voters approved new House districts helping Democrats, Kansas Republicans dropped plans for a special session on redistricting, and a Utah judge adopted a new House map that benefits Democrats.
Trump suffered a stunning setback Dec. 11, when Indiana’s Republican-led Senate defeated a redistricting plan that could have helped the GOP win all nine of the state’s U.S. House seats, up from their current seven.
The net result from the 2025 jockeying could be three additional seats for Republicans. But even that is in question, because legal challenges remain in some states, and there is no guarantee that parties will win the districts they redrew.
Virginia may be next up on redistricting
When the Virginia General Assembly begins its annual session, the agenda will include a proposed constitutional amendment allowing mid-decade redistricting in response to other states.
The amendment, which received first-round approval in the fall, would also need to pass a statewide vote before the new districts could be implemented. Quick action would be necessary to get all that accomplished in time for candidates to run in redrawn districts later this year.
Democrats, who currently hold six of the state’s 11 U.S. House seats, have not unveiled what those new districts would look like. But some have talked of trying to gain as many as four additional seats.
Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger has embraced the redistricting effort but has not committed to a particular plan.
“I will look at any map that is kind of reasonable and keeping communities compact and together,” Spanberger, a Democrat, told The Associated Press. “But ultimately, it’s up to the people of Virginia to choose whether or not to move forward with the referendum.”
Florida plans an April redistricting debate
Republicans currently hold 20 of Florida’s 28 U.S. House seats. That advantage could grow if districts are reshaped during a special session.
Although Florida’s regular legislative session starts Tuesday, DeSantis said he is waiting until April to call a special redistricting session to allow time for a possible U.S. Supreme Court ruling on a key provision of the federal Voting Rights Act. If the court rules in a Louisiana case that race cannot be the predominant factor in creating voting districts, it could open the way for several Republican-led states to redraw districts represented by Black or Hispanic lawmakers who are Democrats.
DeSantis said the high court’s ruling could affect “at least one or two” Florida districts.
But any redistricting that aids Republicans could face a court challenge. A voter-approved Florida constitutional provision prohibits drawing district boundaries to favor or disfavor a political party or incumbent.
Resistance remains in several targeted states
Some Democrats seeking to counter Trump have urged lawmakers in Illinois and Maryland to redraw their already heavily Democratic districts to try to gain one additional seat in each state. But the plans appear to lack traction as legislative sessions begin Tuesday in both states.
Illinois House Speaker Pro Tem Kam Buckner said “there is no active push” for congressional redistricting.
“There is no appetite to reopen something that will consume enormous time, energy and, frankly, political capital without a compelling justification,” Buckner, a Democrat, told the AP.
Democratic Maryland Gov. Wes Moore has created a special commission to recommend a new congressional map. But Democratic Senate President Bill Ferguson remains opposed and insists that a majority of residents also do not want new districts.
In Kansas, some Republicans want to redraw U.S. House districts to try to gain an additional seat. But House Republicans have failed to gain the two-thirds support needed to override a likely veto by Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly.
House Speaker Dan Hawkins told reporters that he has no plans to hold a vote on congressional redistricting during the annual legislative session that starts Monday.
“I do not have the votes,” Hawkins said.
