By Jheri Hardaway
Staff Writer
Raleigh, NC - The Martin Marietta Center for the Performing Arts was abuzz this morning as business leaders, entrepreneurs, and policymakers gathered for the Economic Forecast 2026, presented by Wells Fargo. The event offered a timely and comprehensive look at the national and regional economic outlook as the new year begins. Attendees started the day with a valuable hour of networking and breakfast, followed by the program in the A.J. Fletcher Opera Theater.
The program delivered a high-caliber lineup of speakers. National perspectives were provided by Tom Barkin of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Tim Quinlan of Wells Fargo, offering attendees key insights into broader economic forces shaping 2026. Tom mentioned, “Build more houses if you want affordable housing. Tim spoke about the fact that economic symbols are all around us in the community.
Connecting these national trends to local realities were regional leaders Danielle Y. Clermont, CEO of Raleigh Regional Association of REALTORS, and Brian Leary, EVP COO of Highwood Properties, Inc. Their discussion centered on how the broader economic picture translates into specific challenges, opportunities, and development trends for businesses operating in the Triangle area.
On Housing and Wealth Creation:
Strong Domestic and Global Buyer Interest: Buyers, both domestic and global, are actively purchasing homes.
Resilient Rental Market: The rental market remains strong, and builders are actively increasing inventory.
The Debate on Homeownership vs. Renting/Investing: There's an ongoing discussion about whether homeownership is the best place for capital appreciation versus renting and investing in the stock market (like the S&P).
Affordability Solution is More Homes: Increased housing affordability is directly linked to an increase in housing supply.
New Product Type: The construction of single-family rentals is a positive new product type that adds more housing units to the market.
On Local Spending and Cashless Society:
Local Spending Matters: A dollar spent locally (e.g., at a farmer's market) still has a significant positive economic impact by keeping capital circulating in the local community.
Cashless Society Transition: The move to a completely cashless society is still a distant and complex issue. Many merchants, especially small and local ones, still handle cash, but generally, fewer places are refusing cards for small purchases. The transition is difficult because a significant portion of the population, including the less affluent, still relies on cash and may not have bank accounts, which would need to be addressed in a "zero cash model."
Digital Currency: Digital versions of the U.S. dollar are being worked on and could potentially disrupt correspondent banking, independent of the adoption of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum.
On Federal Deficits and Debt:
Top Concern: Federal government deficits and debt are a speaker's absolute top economic concern.
Historical Context: Historically, large budget deficits (as a share of GDP) were generally reserved for recessions (peaking around 4-5%) and were quickly brought back under control (e.g., in the '70s, '80s, and '90s, leading to a balanced budget in the late '90s/early 2000s).
Current Problem: The U.S. is now running significant budget deficits (4.5% before COVID and now 5-6%) during normal, non-recessionary periods.
Political Inertia: Fixing the deficit problem would require unpopular measures (like addressing Social Security and healthcare spending), which politicians often avoid due to short election cycles.
On Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Market (Economic Indicators):
Read Diverse Sources: Read "the best of the left and the best of the right" (e.g., The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times).
Don't Ignore Local Signals (Micro-Indicators): Pay attention to non-traditional, local economic signals like the number of cars/trucks in a Dollar Tree, Dollar Store, or Family Dollar parking lot (indicating more people are shopping at discount stores, suggesting economic hard times). Attendance at local events (comparing year-to-year data).
Talk to People: The most effective way to understand the economy is to travel and talk directly with people who are making hiring, firing, pricing, and investing decisions in diverse geographic areas (cities and small towns).
The annual Economic Forecast continues to be an essential event for anyone seeking to understand the economic currents that will define the coming year, providing the essential analysis needed for strategic planning and decision-making. The event was made possible by its generous sponsors, including Presenting Sponsor Wells Fargo, Silver Sponsor Duke Energy, Gold Sponsors Coldwell Banker Howard, Perry and Walston, and Forvis Mazars, and Bronze Sponsors Highwoods Properties, Inc., Martin Marietta, Research Triangle Foundation of North Carolina, and The Resolute Building Company.
